Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Q4 Earnings, Growth Prospects, and Future Catalysts Explained
Key Points:
Q4 2026 revenue surged 73% YoY to $68.13B, with EPS of $1.62 beating estimates.
Strong AI demand, cloud partnerships, and compute growth position Nvidia for long-term expansion.
China exclusions and export restrictions remain a key uncertainty for near-term guidance.
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Nvidia (Nvidia Corporation) continues to dominate headlines with its record-breaking Q4 2026 earnings, strategic cloud partnerships, and ambitious growth outlook. The company reported $68.13 billion in revenue for the quarter ended January 2026, representing a 73.2% year-over-year increase, and an EPS of $1.62 compared to $0.89 a year ago. Both figures surpassed Wall Street estimates, with revenue $4.14% above consensus and EPS 6.71% higher than expected, signaling strong operational execution.
Breaking down its revenue streams, Nvidia’s Data Center segment led growth with $62.31 billion, a 75.1% rise from the prior year, exceeding the $58.72 billion consensus. Graphics revenue surged 96.5% YoY to $6.48 billion, while Compute & Networking climbed 71.1% to $61.65 billion. Gaming revenue grew 46.5% to $3.73 billion, slightly below estimates. Other segments, such as Automotive and OEM, posted moderate gains, reflecting Nvidia’s diversified portfolio.
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Despite the impressive numbers, the stock showed muted reactions in early trading. Analysts like Nancy Tengler note that Nvidia’s fundamentals—mid-70% gross margins and 60%+ earnings growth—may already be priced in. Yet, she emphasized the untapped growth potential in China and sovereign markets, multi-year AI infrastructure investments, and compute-driven revenue opportunities as catalysts for future performance (Yahoo Finance).
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78 billion notably excludes China Data Center compute revenue due to export restrictions. While the company holds $95.2 billion in supply commitments and has secured multi-year GPU deals with Meta (Meta Platforms Inc) and CoreWeave (CoreWeave) totaling $26 billion, uncertainty around China remains a key variable (247WallSt). The $500 billion long-term revenue target for combined Blackwell and Rubin platforms was not reaffirmed, suggesting that sustained growth acceleration will be critical to reach that milestone.
Investor sentiment reflects both optimism and caution. Analyst consensus implies a $254 price target, suggesting roughly 30% upside, while prediction markets assign only a 43% probability of NVDA closing above $200 in the short term. This divergence underscores the tension between strong fundamentals and near-term stock pricing.
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In conclusion, Nvidia continues to deliver exceptional financial performance and strategic positioning in AI, cloud computing, and high-performance graphics. While China-related guidance exclusions and export restrictions introduce near-term uncertainty, the company’s multi-year agreements, expanding compute and networking revenue, and persistent EPS outperformance make it a compelling growth story. Investors watching Nvidia must balance short-term volatility against long-term structural opportunities in AI, data center expansion, and global compute demand.
Key Points Summary
Q4 revenue: $68.13B (+73% YoY), EPS: $1.62 (+82% YoY)
Data Center and Graphics lead growth; Compute & Networking expanding rapidly
Multi-year cloud agreements with Meta & CoreWeave total $26B
Q1 FY2027 guidance excludes China Data Center compute revenue due to export restrictions
Stock priced cautiously despite strong fundamentals; long-term growth remains compelling
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: How did Nvidia perform in Q4 2026?
A1: Nvidia posted $68.13B in revenue (+73% YoY) and EPS of $1.62, surpassing both consensus estimates and buy-side whisper numbers.
Q2: What are Nvidia’s key growth drivers?
A2: AI infrastructure, Data Center compute, Graphics, Networking, and multi-year cloud partnerships with Meta, CoreWeave, and OpenAI.
Q3: Why is China excluded from Q1 guidance?
A3: Export restrictions and past inventory charges led Nvidia to omit China Data Center compute revenue from its $78B Q1 FY2027 guidance.
Q4: Is Nvidia stock undervalued?
A4: Analysts cite strong earnings growth, a P/E below 25, and untapped global demand, though short-term pricing may reflect cautious market sentiment.
Q5: What is Nvidia’s long-term revenue target?
A5: The $500B target for Blackwell and Rubin platforms remains in play but was not updated in Q4 guidance.
Sources
Nasdaq – Detailed Q4 2026 revenue, EPS, and segment performance for Nvidia
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/compared-estimates-nvidia-nvda-q4-earnings-look-key-metricsYahoo Finance – Analyst discussion on stock reaction, gross margins, and catalysts
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-stock-stalls-despite-6b-163647139.html247WallSt – Key storylines: China revenue exclusion, $500B target, cloud agreements, and Q4 earnings context
https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/26/3-nvidia-storylines-that-matter/
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